NukeTheBookies: Ryder Cup Thread

[NukeTheBookies]

USA +160 to win the Ryder Cup
(1 unit to win 1.6 units)


Europe +115 to lead after Day #1 morning Four-Ball
(1 unit to win 1.15 units)​

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #1: Morning Four-Ball Matches:

Spieth/Reed +105 o Poulter/Gallacher
(1.5 unit to win 1.58 units)




Below are the lines I would set if I was the odds-maker. I think these are accurate.

Watson/Simpson +130 v Stenson/Rose -150
Mickelson/Bradley +115 v Garcia/McIlroy -135
Fowler/Walker -130 v Bjorn/Kaymer +110
Spieth/Reed -110 v Poulter/Gallacher -110


And here are the actual opening line:
Watson/Simpson +115 v Stenson/Rose -145
Mickelson/Bradley +135 v Garcia/McIlroy -165
Fowler/Walker -160 v Bjorn/Kaymer +130


I think the strongest teams in order from top to bottom are:

1. Garcia/McIlroy
2. Fowler/Walker
3. Stenson/Rose
4. Spieth/Reed
5. Mickelson/Bradley
6. Poulter/Gallacher
7. Bjorn/Kaymer
8. Watson/Simpson

I will probably play at least 2 more of the matches if the lines move slightly in my favor. There is value on Mickelson/Bradley and Kaymer/Bjorn at the moment but I'm reluctant to bet against the best 2 pairing (IMO) unless there is a little more value.

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #1: Foursome (added play)


Mickelson/Bradley +140 o Garcia/McIlroy
(1 unit to win 1.4 units)


I hate betting against the best pairing but too much value on 2 really good players. Mickelson/Bradley should never be this big of underdogs.



My predictions for Day #1 - Foursomes: Good chance Europe is leading 2.5-1.5 at the end of the morning session. Europe should win matches #1 & #4. USA should win #2. Match #3 is either won by the US or split IMO.

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #2: Foursomes:


Mahan/Johnson +140 o Rose/Stenson

Walker/Fowler +140 o McIlroy/Garcia

Dubuisson/McDowell +110 o Mickelson/Bradley

Donaldson/Westwood +135 o Furyk/Kuchar

 

[dynasty]

With you on Walker/Fowler- Taking the halve in the AM without using a hole on the back from Ricky is enough to get them going (Ricky turns it around in afternoon)
This is a big play if McIllroy/Garcia lose in the AM

Against you on Mahan/Johnson- Rose/Stenson have been playing much better solo than Mahan/Johnson

Against you on Mickelson/Bradley- if they win the morning matches, Keegan will be amped and Phil will ride him to the W

Furyk/Kuchar- Smooth as the other side of the pillow with these 2, nothing will get to them.
Donaldson is the only wild card here, if he hits greens for Lee they could be in this til the end. He misses greens, Lee's short game isn't there anymore. Donaldson is very good on this course but pressure might get to the rookie.

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #1: Foursome (added play)


WON - Spieth/Reed +105 o Poulter/Gallacher

WON - Mickelson/Bradley +140 o Garcia/McIlroy


Day #1: Foursomes:

LOSS Mahan/Johnson +140 o Rose/Stenson

PUSH - Walker/Fowler +140 o McIlroy/Garcia

WON - Dubuisson/McDowell +110 o Mickelson/Bradley

WON - Donaldson/Westwood +135 o Furyk/Kuchar

Day # 1 Re-Cap:

4-1-1 +3.9 units



**typo on my 2nd set of plays. Obviously that was suppose to say: 'Day #1: Foursome' instead of Day #2. This mistake is pretty clear sense the plays were posted 24 hours before the Day #2 foursomes were even announced. Just FYI**

 

[NukeTheBookies]

With you on Walker/Fowler- Taking the halve in the AM without using a hole on the back from Ricky is enough to get them going (Ricky turns it around in afternoon)
This is a big play if McIllroy/Garcia lose in the AM

Against you on Mahan/Johnson- Rose/Stenson have been playing much better solo than Mahan/Johnson

Against you on Mickelson/Bradley- if they win the morning matches, Keegan will be amped and Phil will ride him to the W

Furyk/Kuchar- Smooth as the other side of the pillow with these 2, nothing will get to them.
Donaldson is the only wild card here, if he hits greens for Lee they could be in this til the end. He misses greens, Lee's short game isn't there anymore. Donaldson is very good on this course but pressure might get to the rookie.

Thanks for for the feedback.

One thing to keep in mind, I don't really try to predict outcomes when making my picks, I look for more "line-value". For the right price, I'm good with putting money on either side. For example, I agree that Stenson/Rose have been playing better and should have been favored in the 2nd match, I just felt that getting Mahan/Kuchar at +140 was too much value to pass up. If you look at my first post, I had Stenson/Rose ranked as my 3rd strongest pairing in the morning matches and Bubba/Watson ranked as my least strongest, but I didn't bet on it because I wasnt willing to lay -145. I had my "true line" set at -150 for Stenson/Rose and I would have needed to get them at -130 or lower to make the play. I used the same logic when I bet on Mickelson/Bradley in the morning (against a strong matchup) but against them in the afternoon (facing an easier matchup). It's simply a game of value in my opinion and not prediction.

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #2: Fourballs (morning):

Reed/Spieth -135 o Bjorn/Kaymer



*This line should be -150 vs +130 IMO*

 

[dynasty]

Good stuff Nuke-
Good morning for the Yankees.
Speith and Reed should not be benched for the afternoon round.
GL in alternate shot... waiting to see the match-ups

 

[dynasty]

Nuke-

Going to have to go with the USA in the first match-up
Kuchar/ZJ -125
Lee and Donaldson had 4 birdies this morning playing BB. Donaldson has an off afternoon and Kuchar makes some shots

A lot of value in the +120 for Mahan and Furyk. It is a no play for me but Mahan was -7 through 15 this morning

Speith/Reed- ride the hot team

VD/Graham- playing too well together

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #2: Foursomes (Afternoon)

Rose/Kaymer ev (sportsbook.ag) o Reed/Spieth

McDowell/Dubuisson -105 o Walker/Fowler

Johnson/Kuchar -120 o Donaldson/Westwood

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Nuke-

Going to have to go with the USA in the first match-up
Kuchar/ZJ -125
Lee and Donaldson had 4 birdies this morning playing BB. Donaldson has an off afternoon and Kuchar makes some shots

A lot of value in the +120 for Mahan and Furyk. It is a no play for me but Mahan was -7 through 15 this morning

Speith/Reed- ride the hot team

VD/Graham- playing too well together

dont disagree with the play on Spieth/Reed at all. I'm making a more situational bet here banking on the fact that alternate shot is very different than best ball and neither Spieth/Reed drive it exceptionally consistent.

 

[RUSS]

Disagree Westwood is money won't lose

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Disagree Westwood is money won't lose

He's definitely a great player but he lost this morning and his lifetime record is 16-11-6. So he wins about 50% of his matches which is pretty strong. He's been exceptionally strong in foursome play so it certainly is bet that could lose on my end. Best of luck.

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Day #2 Re-Cap: 2-1-1 +.85 units
Thru 2 Days: 6-3-2 +4.75 units

 

[NukeTheBookies]

Final Ryder Cup Re-Cap:

Matchups: 6-3-2 +4.75 units
Futures: 0-2 -2.15 units

Total: +2.60 units